Do fim do princípio para o princípio do fim?

Proposta para o principio do fim da crise economica do Covid19 - no Eco: link



O potencial do teletrabalho em Portugal

Resumo: A crise do Covid19 e a emergência do ‘distanciamento social/físico’ está a despertar um interesse acrescido sobre o teletrabalho: este estudo breve analisa em que medida este tipo de trabalho poderá ser utilizado de forma alargada no caso de Portugal. A avaliação baseia-se numa análise subjetiva do potencial do teletrabalho entre as 200 profissões que representam o maior número dos empregados no setor privado no país. 

O estudo estima que apenas 9% dos trabalhadores possam desempenhar de forma plena as suas profissões atuais em teletrabalho, enquanto que 26% o poderão fazer de forma significativa. Mais de metade (54%) dos trabalhadores têm perspetivas muito baixas ou inexistentes de teletrabalho. O estudo estima ainda que o potencial do teletrabalho cresce muito significativamente com a escolaridade e com o salário do trabalhador, dada a associação destas variáveis e as profissões desempenhadas. 


Versao no Observador



What do employers' associations do?

New working paper - Link

Abstract: While trade unions have been studied in detail, there is virtually no economics research on employer associations (EAs), trade unions' counterparts in many countries. However, besides conducting collective bargaining, EAs perform several other activities that can in uence economic outcomes, including training and coordination. This paper studies the contributions of EAs by comparing affiliated and non-affiliated firms in terms of sales, employment, productivity, and wages. Using matched employer-employee panel data for Portugal, we find that affiliated firms exhibit better outcomes along most of these dimensions, even when drawing on changes in affiliation status over time; and that this affiliation premium tends to increase with EA coverage (defined as the percentage of workers in the relevant industry/region domain that are employed by affiliated firms). Sectors as a whole also appear to benefit from EA coverage, even if non-affiliated firms do worse.



New research on employee training and firm performance

Employee Training and Firm Performance: Quasi-experimental evidence from the European Social Fund - Link 

Abstract: As work changes, firm-provided training may become more relevant for good economic and social outcomes. However, so far there is little or no causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme in Portugal, contrasting successful firms that received the grants and unsuccessful firms that did not. Combining several rich data sets, we compare a large number of potential outcomes of these firms, while following them over long periods of time before and after the grant decision. Our difference-in-differences models estimate significant positive effects on take up (training hours and expenditure), with limited deadweight; and that such additional training led to increased sales, value added, employment, productivity, and exports. These effects tend to be of at least 5% and, in some cases, 10% or more.

LSE blog: http://cver-blog.blogspot.com/2020/03/training-grants-useful-policy-to.html



Weathering the storm: Employment policy and the coronavirus

Europe’s labour markets may be hit hard by the coronavirus. What can employment policy do to soften its effects? I offer below some first thoughts on this potential crisis.

The best response will depend first on a good understanding of the nature of the shock. So far, the coronavirus crisis appears to be essentially a temporary supply-side shock.

People are getting sick and unable to work. Healthcare will be absorbing more resources. Above all a large share of the workforce will have to stay at home - to reduce the chances of getting infected and or to provide support to others. Global value chains are disrupted as access to and demand for intermediate inputs breaks is affected.

Of course, some jobs can be carried out at home with little disruption. But in many other cases that will be difficult or nearly impossible – manufacturing, construction, restaurants, hotels, retail, events, etc. Note that many of these industries are strongly labour-intensive and pay relatively low wages, which speaks to their resilience and potential wider social and economic impacts.

But there’s a demand-side element as well, even if focused on particular industries, namely tourism and transport. Financial credit may dry up for some businesses. The loss of labour income in some professions may also affect aggregate demand to some extent.

Is this a temporary or permanent shock? The recent developments in some Asian countries – China, South Korea and Japan – suggest the virus can be contained. With a bit of luck, the warm weather from Spring and Summer may also help in slowing down or reverting the virus. A vaccine may be available sometime next year. But it seems highly unlikely that the disruption from the virus will go away in less than six months or perhaps even more.

If nothing is done, what will happen in labour markets? The most likely first impact is an abrupt freezing in hirings leading to higher unemployment. Given the uncertainty ahead and the diminished demand that many firms are already experiencing, plans regarding new appointments firms will be put on hold or cancelled. This will affect people that are in between jobs and now will take much longer to find employment.

A second stage of this process will involve the renegotiation, non-renewal or termination of non-standard contracts (fixed-term, temporary and service contracts). In contrast to the case of hiring freezes above – which may involve mostly younger individuals that are not yet entitled to unemployment benefits -, in this second stage such automatic stabilisers will kick in and provide income support to most of those who lost their jobs.

Finally, a third stage will involve some combination of dismissals - and further increases in unemployment - and pay cuts. This would arise in deeply affected firms or, more generally, in a more extreme version of the crisis, of widespread contagion. Fortunately, this does not appear to be on the cards given the apparently successful recent developments in China and other more developed Asian countries.

Fortunately, many firms will have financial buffers to deal with shocks like this - many have enjoyed several years of economic growth since the last recession. The understanding that this is a temporary shock will also make them hold on to their workers for as long as they can.

Firms will also be trying to adapt their production models, making greater use of telework. Fortunately, broadband coverage is so widespread that virtually anyone can conduct meetings, deliver presentations, meet customers, answer calls and emails, access data or write reports over the internet from home (if these activities are important parts of their jobs). Greater flexibility in telework was long overdue and this crisis will probably represent a watershed in its widespread adoption in the labour market.

So, what can employment policy do to alleviate the negative effects of the virus on the labour market? Several dimensions deserve attention – below I list four:

1. Short-time work schemes: these involve the reduction of the hours of work or the suspension of the employment contract of some percentage of the workers in firms badly affected by the virus. The cost of this measure is typically split between workers and social security. Workers are paid a lower total salary; social security fund the part of the new salary that is not paid by the firm; firms pay more than if they dismissed their workers. However, all parties can be better off: workers keep their jobs, firms keep their workers – and can resume their business quickly when the crisis comes to an end -, and social security would have to pay more in unemployment benefits if the workers were dismissed. These schemes are rightly credited with the resilience of the German labour market during the financial crisis. Of course, their usefulness in 2020 will depend considerably on the nature of the shock – these schemes will not be effective in sectors where the shock may be long-lasting.

2. Training: firms can use this challenging time to upgrade the skills of their workforce. Again, training activities can increasingly be conducted online from home. Part of the training content may involve teleworking itself. Financial support through grants to pay for the direct and indirect costs of training can make a big difference in persuading firms to use this period to invest in their workers. To be more effective and minimise deadweight, these training grants should be made available to firms that may benefit the most from the training activities while also facing the most challenging financial constraints. Public employment services should also advertise and make widely available their online training modules not only to jobseekers but also to employees stuck at home.

3. Sick pay extensions: many countries offer sick pay benefits but make them available only from the fourth day of sickness – i.e. there is a waiting period of three days. This acts as a screening device to deal with moral hazard issues. However, this may dissuade many from suspending work at a time when they may be highly contagious. It will make sense to shorten or even eliminate this waiting period.

4. Employment law: greater flexibility in working conditions may be important to soften the employment impact of the crisis. Any increases in minimum wages or other costs for employers planned for the next months should be cancelled or at least postponed. While minimum wage increases appear not to have had significant effects on employment over the last few years, the economic context at the time was very different. The likely negative effects on hirings are already significant – there is certainly no need to make them even worse by increasing minimum wages. Additional flexibility in teleworking arrangements or even in the setting of holidays or leave days may also be useful.

Fortunately, most labour markets will be resilient enough given the low unemployment rates and the long period of expansion over the last years. However, this shock seems to be very different from the previous ones. Quick and decisive action may pay off handsomely later. Better safe than sorry.



Delegados sindicais e desempenho economico das empresas

Novo estudo, 'The Microeconomic Impact of Employee Representatives: Evidence from Membership Thresholds', publicado na revista 'Industrial Relations'

Resumo: Employee representatives in firms are a potentially key but not yet studied source of the impact of unions and works councils. Their actions can shape multiple drivers of firm performance, including collective bargaining, strikes, and training. This paper examines the impact of union rep mandates by exploiting legal membership thresholds present in many countries. In the case of Portugal, which we examine here, while firms employing up to 49 union members are required to have one union rep, this increases to two (three) union reps for firms with 50 to 99 (100-199) union members. Drawing on matched employer- employee data on the unionised sector and regression discontinuity methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the legal union rep/members ratio leads to an increase in firm performance of at least 7%. This result generally holds across multiple dimensions of firm performance and appears to be driven by increased training. However, we find no effects of union reps on firm-level wages, given the predominance of sectoral collective bargaining.
Versao WP disponivel aqui.



"Envolver as empresas na educação e formação"

Texto publicado no Observador em fevereiro:

No meio da polémica sobre as referências à corrupção, as recomendações da ‘Economic Survey’ da OCDE publicada esta semana infelizmente receberam pouca atenção no debate público. Entre várias outras propostas reformistas de grande interesse, na área específica da educação a OCDE propõe a Portugal:
–expandir programas de formação profissional como os cursos de aprendizagem e os cursos de educação e formação de adultos, para que possam beneficiar um número maior da população menos qualificada; e
–consolidar os dois sistemas de educação vocacional num sistema único com uma componente forte de aprendizagem em posto de trabalho e desenvolver uma avaliação detalhada de todos os programas de formação profissional.
Ambas as medidas são muito acertadas e oportunas. Desde já, agora que a queda do desemprego parece chegar ao seu fim, é ainda mais importante investir nas qualificações. Enquanto que nos últimos anos o crescimento económico resultou em grande medida do aumento dos níveis de emprego, a partir de agora, este crescimento – a existir – deverá resultar sobretudo do aumento da produtividade. Por outro lado, as megatendências da inteligência artificial, da automação, e do envelhecimento (sobretudo este último no caso português) redobram a necessidade de ajustar o nosso sistema de educação e formação. E aqui importa sublinhar a relevância que a OCDE atribui, direta ou indiretamente, ao envolvimento das empresas neste sistema.
Exemplos disto são as referências aos cursos de aprendizagem – em que os jovens dividem a sua semana entre a escola e a empresa, aprendendo e praticando, praticando e aprendendo – ou à formação em posto de trabalho – em que os desempregados (ou não) adquirem novas qualificações ao mesmo tempo que identificam o seu potencial junto de potenciais empregadores. Num contexto tão imprevisível como aquele que se afigura para os próximos anos – para não falar das próximas décadas –, o contributo das empresas para a definição e para o desenvolvimento das áreas de educação e formação prioritárias é cada vez mais imprescindível e não pode continuar a ser desperdiçado.
Isto é sobretudo o caso quando estes contributos forem proporcionados também através de investimentos feitos pelas próprias empresas (indicando “skin in the game”), com a disponibilização de colaboradores próprios como tutores, com o desenvolvimento de novos conteúdos formativos, ou com o copagamento das despesas dos cursos e das bolsas de formação. Daqui resultará um sistema mais equilibrado entre procura e oferta, não dominado por esta última, mais ágil a responder positivamente às inevitáveis mudanças dos próximos anos, e com um contributo mais forte na promoção do aumento da produtividade e da melhoria das condições de trabalho.
Uma última palavra para outra ideia importante das recomendações da OCDE: a avaliação detalhada de todos os programas nesta área. Os desenvolvimentos dos últimos anos ao nível do “big data” tornam cada vez mais acessível a análise dos impactos de cada curso. Esta informação é imprescindível, não só para os jovens interessados em conhecer as perspetivas profissionais de diferentes cursos e escolas – e relembremos essa área tão esquecida do sistema que é a orientação escolar e profissional –, como também para os decisores públicos. Estes últimos continuam a tomar todos os anos decisões envolvendo muitos milhares de milhões de euros com uma base de informação extremamente limitada. Também aqui é possível fazer (muito) melhor.

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